The Highly Anticipated Rate Hike In The Last Decade

The RBNZ cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% last week.  The New Zealand dollar rebounded since mid September lowered the chances of RNBZ achieving its inflation target.  They mentioned the current rate is likely to be enough to get inflation back to target while maintaining an easing bias.  This is the fourth interest rate cut since June this year. The New Zealand dollar jumped 1.29% against the US dollar from $0.6640...

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Everyone loves the US dollar again in 2016

Stick with what's working It's painful to ride alongside an overwhelming consensus but it worked in 2015. US dollar longs were everyone's favourite trade at the start of the year and they've delivered. The US dollar so far trails only the Swiss franc as the top performer this year (and it's close). Going into 2016, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, BNP Paribas Credit Suisse all recommend EUR/USD shorts this year. The median...

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Time to gear up for Non-farm payrolls. Here's the dollar trade for this event

Enough about the ECB, it's time to bring the yanks back into play and the wonderful NFP's The yanks don't like being left out of a party but it was all about Europe yesterday so today they are our hosts Let's be clear on one thing. This one report won't be a game changer for the Fed and whatever path they are on. Unless we see the most amazing collapse and signals that the jobs market is disappearing into a fiery pit of...

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IMF Approves Reserve-Currency Status for China's Yuan

The IMF will add the yuan to its basket of reserve currencies, an international stamp of approval of the strides China has made integrating into a global economic system dominated for decades by the U.S., Europe and Japan. The International Monetary Fund’s executive board, which represents the fund’s 188 member nations, decided the yuan meets the standard of being “freely usable” and will join the dollar, euro, pound and yen in its Special Drawing...

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Canada Q3 GDP matches estimates but growth fell at quarter-end

Canadian third quarter GDP highlights: Q3 GDP +2.3% vs +2.3% expected Q2 growth was -0.54% (revised to -0.30%) Q1 growth was -0.78% (unrevised) September GDP -0.5% m/m vs +0.0% exp August GDP previously reported at +0.1% m/m GDP y/y 0.0% vs +0.4% exp Prior y/y GDP growth was +0.9% Full report from StatsCan Canada emerges from a minor recession. The mix of revisions skews lower. Note the softness in year-over-year GDP. The September reading...

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Swiss tourism sector lobbying for a new CHF cap at 1.1500 vs EUR

Bloomberg with the story quoting from an article in today's Schweiz am Sonntag The president of Grisons mountain railways, Sylvia Schmid, said: "We've grown convinced that there needs to be a cap of 1.15 francs per euro" Not a major lobby given that tourism contributes less than 3% to Swiss GDP but the idea may catch on The article also reports comments from a banking executive saying the industry is worried that the...

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Currency Update 23rd of November

Monday, November 23rd, 2015 by Jarratt Davis We do not plan to enter any new positions until we assess the outcome of the Fed’s unscheduled meeting during the NY session. Start your week off on the right foot by reading my currency update below.  Currency Update: USD: The market currently prices a 72% probability for a Fed rate hike on December 16. The Fed have clearly signalled they are ready to commence the tightening...

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