Wednesday, November 18, 2015

IS found security loopholes to bring down Russian plane

Reuters reporting comments from IS

  • Smuggled bomb onto plane after finding loophole at Sharm Al-Sheikh airport
  • It first planned to take down a Western plane but chose Russia after it started strikes in Syria
Also popping up is a headline that the Eurostar check in in Paris's Gare Du Nord has been suspended. No further details
On another note I was at the England vs France game at Wembley last night and I've got to say that the run up to kick off was very emotional and the French fans and players did their country proud

There's danger in looking at market yield curves for rate hike date says Broadbent

BOE's Broadbent into some Q&A

  • There's particular danger in looking at lift off date implied by market yield curves
  • Some coverage of the inflation report was misplaced in saying rates would not rise until a certain time
  • Picture of global growth is nuanced
  • The US recovery isn't that strong and underlying productivity growth is weak
  • Productivity growth may have started to happen in the UK
  • Last Fed comments were a slight corrective to Sep comments
  • Fall in commod prices has bought the BOE some time
  • BOE didn't see an emerging market crisis
  • BOE sees solid recovery in domestic demand
  • No single rate path is perfect
I'm in full agreement with him on implied market indicators. Just because we have something in black and white as to what the market thinks doesn't mean that they will be right. Why they are important for trading is that generally lead the market sentiment and that brings opportunity if you believe that they are wrong.

EURUSD looking to break the break

EURUSD broke 1.0700 but is back to test the level. Is that the break over?

Yesterday I noted the break in the euro and what we could possibly make of it.
Right now we're at the point where the break is in danger of being snuffed out
EURUSD 15m chart
We're into the area where the most danger lies, between 1.0690 and 1.0700 and this is big defence line for shorts who went with the break
The price has shown us where intraday support is, down at 1.0630. So we have our intraday range at 1.0630-1.0690/700 and the same break rules apply to either end

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

UK inflation rate remains negative in October

 Sources: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34841952?SThisFB
  • o
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney makes a speech at The Sheldonian Theatre in the University of Oxford on October 21, 2015Image copyrightGetty Images
Image captionBank of England governor Mark Carney has said it could be two years before inflation returns to its 2% target
The UK's inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Prices Index remained at -0.1% in October, the Office for National Statistics has said.
The news will further dampen expectations of a rise in interest rates any time soon.
The Bank of England said earlier this month that the global economy was weakening, depressing inflation risks.
Following this report, many economists forecast that rates would not rise until well into next year.
The ONS added that the Retail Prices Index, a separate measure that includes housing costs, fell to 0.7% in October from 0.8% in September. This is the lowest RPI rate since November 2009.
October marked the first time the Consumer Prices Index has fallen on an annual basis for two months in a row since the index was created in 1997. The price of clothing rose last month, but this was offset by a fall in food, alcohol and tobacco.
The ONS said fuel prices fell by 14% on an annual basis, while food and drink prices fell by 2.7% in October and energy costs were 4.1% lower.
"This is now the ninth month running that CPI has been at or very close to zero," ONS statistician Richard Campbell said.
In its latest quarterly Inflation Report, released earlier this month, the Bank said that inflation was unlikely to rise to 1% until the second half of next year, while it would be two years before it reached its 2% target.
An ONS measure of core consumer price inflation, which strips out changes in the price of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 1.1%, compared with economists' expectations for it to hold at 1%.
inflation graphic
Economists said negative inflation would give a short-term boost to the economy.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: "The benefit of ongoing low inflation is not only that interest rates will stay lower for longer but that real wage growth remains robust, which will in turn continue to boost consumer spending power and help sustain the economic upturn.
"The deflationary picture supports the Bank of England's dovish outlook, which envisages interest rates staying on hold until 2017. However, this outlook is dependent on oil prices and wage pressures remaining low, both of which remain something of an unknown."
Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at consultants PwC, said the latest ONS data did not point to "a more generalised deflation". As fuel price falls drop out of the annual calculation over the next few months, he expected the inflation rate to move up to "about 1% or higher".
He added: "Meanwhile, consumers continue to benefit from the combination of stronger wage increases and very slightly falling prices. The resulting increase in real wages and household disposable incomes should continue to be supportive of consumer spending and economic growth over the year ahead."
The ONS also released figures for house price inflation, which showed an 6.1% annual rise across the UK as a whole in September, compared with 5.5% in August.

Analysis: Anthony Reuben, BBC business reporter

The ONS says: "Upward price pressures for clothing and footwear and a range of recreational goods were offset by downward price pressures for university tuition fees, food, alcohol and tobacco, resulting in no change to the overall rate of inflation."
Students may be surprised to hear that tuition fees pushed inflation down. It turns out that it's because of the comparison with 2014 and the effect of the higher fees introduced for new students in England in 2012.
So, two years ago, third year students were still paying the capped rates. Last year, third year students will have started paying higher rates, which will have raised inflation more than the change this year, when the only group of students paying more than their counterparts last year will be fourth year undergraduates, and there are not as many of those.
So, when they say "downward pressure", they don't mean dropping prices, they mean prices rising at a slower rate than last year.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Preview of the China Q3 GDP data (and more) coming up on Monday

Due from China on Monday during the Asian timezone (19 October 2015 at 0200GMT) is Q3 GDP from China

In brief:
Greg posted a preview here, with more to watch for, especially for the AUD ... the world's favourite proxy trading vehicle for China.
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What else to look for in the GDP
Apart form the headline, attention will turn to the GDP deflator. It often suspected that Chinese economic data is 'massaged' by officials (for the GDP, it would be those at the stats department, the National Bureau of Statistics, the NBS). In the case of the deflator, understating this data point will make 'real' economic growth appear stronger than it really is.
Of course, last week we got the CPI from China (for September), which came in low (at +1.6%, against expectations of +1.8% & prior of 2.0%). A low deflator might be on the cards.
There will be downward pressure on the GDP for Q3 due to the falls in the Chinese stockmarkets. Financial services growth had given a good boost to GDP in H1 of 2015 (Financial services up 17.4% in the first six months from a year earlier), but the falling stockmarket will have out a lid on this growth source. Of course, we may see some unespected growth in other sectors to even this out somewhat.
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Along with Q3 GDP there are other data points around the same time (scheduled for 0200GMT ... note that time of release of Chinese data can be a little flexible, so its reasonable to expect the GDP and perhaps these other data 'around' 0200)
September Retail Sales y/y, expected is +10.8%, prior was +10.8%
  • (also September Retail Sales YTD y/y, expected is +10.5%, prior was +10.5%)
September Industrial Production y/y expected is +6.0%, prior was +6.1%
  • (And September industrial production YTD y/y expected is +6.3%, prior was 6.3%)
September Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y, expected is +10.8%, prior was +10.9%
While most focus will be on the headline GDP, these other data points are not minor and will be heeded.
Fixed asset investment, for example, is a driver of demand for metals, commodities, labour (employment is a critical goal for Chinese authorities, see the quote from Li Keqiang, above) and much more ... its been under pressure from the cooling property sector). There are a number of different combinations of how the data releases could play out, but, in general, misses will see hopes for more stimulus stoked.

Monday, October 5, 2015

Morgan Stanley's Technical Chart of the Week is AUD/USD ... further upside

From Morgan Stanley technical analyst Sheena Shah, an Elliot Wave look at the AUD/USD.

There are 3 charts, from the long-term chart looking back to 2005. Says Shah:
  • When AUDUSD broke out of the bottom end of the longterm channel at 0.84, a further bearish AUD signal was triggered.
  • We still target 0.65 for the end of next year but the short-term charts below show that there could be some upside in the coming weeks.
  • Our positioning tracker suggests that the market remains short AUD, therefore opening room for a reversal.
Then to the 2 year chart, comments:
  • AUDUSD has failed to break below the 0.6896 low from early September.
  • We believe that this was a sign that AUDUSD is set to rebound for the time being.
  • We believe that AUDUSD has formed a complete a-wave structure, so the b-wave would take AUDUSD back into the trend channel drawn here. Initial moves above the 0.7300 high are required to keep the momentum
And so to the shorter-term:
Says Shah:
  • AUDUSD attempted to make a new low but failed to go below 0.6937.
  • We believe this was the end of a b' wave, suggesting further upside for AUD, completing the c' above 0.7273 at least.
  • A move above here opens the way to our tactical trading target of 0.7500.
  • The level is around the middle of the channel shown above.
  Sources: http://technical-analysis.forexlive.com/!/morgan-stanleys-technical-chart-of-the-week-is-audusd--further-upside-20151005

UK official reserves change Sept -£321m vs +£656m prev

Latest stats out from the BOE

This monthly release shows details of movements in the UK's official holdings of international reserves, or assets. These consist of gold, foreign currency assets and International Monetary Fund assets.
Full details from the BOE site here
UK Treasury dept has this as well by way of further background
I'm still going through the small print but I don't see anything of note so far. The HMT report states no intervention operations were undertaken.
Don't be surprised though if a bit of "smoothing is taking place to take advantage of these high TWI-based GBP levels